Saturday, March 22, 2008

Duck's Lack Of Depth Cause Concerns

We are seeing the same problem we were seeing in football recruiting with Mike Bellotti and the football program now with the basketball program.

One great class does not make a great NCAA tournament team. We had one great class in the last 4 classes with Hairston, Taylor, and Maarty in 2004. You brought in 3 guys you could look at to be great scorers, defenders, and leaders. Their downfall was that from what we fans could see(as we don't know what goes on at practice or inside the locker rooms) these guys were not vocal leaders. They were not the guy that Aaron Brooks was the year before that slapped his hand and yelled "give me the damn ball". Or the guy to come up to a younger freshmen and say hey, just make the simple play and get me the ball. These guys were great team players and in the end that was their worst attribute. Too unselfish, always looked to make the extra pass most of the time. We saw flashes of selfishness in these guys down to the last game with Malik having the possessed look on his face and trying to take the game over. thats however what made things so frustrating with this group is that they showed that fire every once and awhile and then it went away.

In 2005 we followed that up with no recruits signed. Now thats partially due to the fact that we had no offers to give, but good programs don't put them in a situation where they don't have a signing period and not being able to bring in new blood.

2005 we signed an average class in getting Porter, Catron, and Longmire. Yes two of these guys are starters this past season but Catron wouldn't start for most Pac-10 teams but instead be a great player off the bench as an energy guy. Longmire is a great athlete but thats about it right now. He cant create his own shot and relies on rebounds or a good passer to set him up. He does play good defense but at the high level Oregon fans want to be at you cant play a player thats only good at defense and expect to win every game. Porter is the tricky one. Porter would start for alot other teams but the great ones like Duke, UCLA, Kansas, UA, Michigan State, he wouldn't start and in turn be that sniper that comes in off the bench for 15-20 minutes a game and be used to extend the defense and yet limit his defensive liability and his lack of PG abilities.

2006 we again signed an average class with Brown, Viney, and Dorsianvile. Dorsianvile wasn't ready to see the floor and do anything productive at all on both ends of the floor. You could contribute that to him having to wait over an entire year to get to Oregon due to immigration papers, but in the grand scheme of things it shouldn't matter if he was a great player. Viney has shown at times he could be a good player, and he was hurt, but when given time on the floor Viney showed he was a freshmen and was pushed around down low and shied away from contact much like a tentative freshmen would. Viney has a skill set where he could develop into a good player but for good programs you don't rely on a player who could develop into a good player down the road his first year. Brown again was a wild card much like Porter is. He is a great passer, yet tries to make things too fancy and "sexy" and that gets him into turning the ball over. He can't shoot the ball from outside if his life depended on it. Now I am 100% sure that will change as his time at Oregon comes to an end, but again good programs dont try to rely on someone right away when they have work to do in their games.

If Kent wants to keep his job secure he needs to do a better job recruiting over the years and not rely simply on one class. Look at the great programs and their recruiting over the years:

Duke made the top 10 in 2005, 2006, 2007. Duke always a top 4 seed.

Kansas had the 2nd best in 2004, best in 2005, and top ten in 2006. They are a favorite for the title and a #1 seed.

North Carolina had the 4th best in 2005 and had the best class in 2006. They are the top seed in the tournament and the overall favorite to win it.

Memphis had the 9th best in 2004, 6th best in 2005, and 4th best in 2007. They are #1 seed and were ranked #1 for a long period this season.

Louisville had the 7th best in 2004, 5th best in 2005, 9th best in 2005, and they were a team talking about getting a #1 seed earlier in the year and many people think they will make a run this year.

Kent can't rely simply on next years freshmen for the next 4 years like he did with Hairston, Maarty, and Taylor. He needs to sign again at least a top 25 class for the class of 09 and follow that up again with another top 25 class.

Following a good class with another and another allows you to have someone in waiting if a player doesn't develop into the high level player you were hoping and by sheer numbers you will most likely have a guy that is capable.

So if Kent can land another top class next year things may change and we might see the team improve because we will actually have a bench which we don't have and haven't had since Kent has been here. Until Kent develops the ability to build depth and Oregon being able to go 8, 9, 10 deep Oregon and its fans will always banter on the idea if Kent is a good coach or not. Coaching is 30% of the game, but having better players than team B as they enter the program is more important. So if Kent cant land another top class next fall, I would be inclined to start looking elsewhere.

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